Cement + CCUS Outlook 2025

Lower-clinker recipes and smart carbon capture are now the two levers every kiln in India and the Gulf must pull

Author: Kritika Thakur – AGM Marketing & Communications, GAS LAB      Posted On: 11-05-2026

1 Why cement is still a climate outlier

Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) releases 0.55 – 0.90 t CO₂ t⁻¹ because limestone is literally baked out of its carbon. Two levers dominate any credible plan:

  • Lower the clinker-to-cement ratio (C/C). Swap in fly-ash, slag or calcined clay.
  • Capture what remains. Even an aggressive blend leaves > 50 % “process CO₂” that only CCUS—or new chemistries still at pilot scale—can eliminate.
Cement CCUS Outlook 2025 Technical Diagram

A new CEEW study backs that up: 56 % of residual emissions from India’s steel-and-cement complex remain “hard” even after energy-efficiency and alternative fuel shifts, so CCUS isn’t optional.

Planning a capture-ready kiln?

2 2025 policy pressure—no more wiggle room

Jurisdiction 2025 change Impact
India – BIS draft amendment to IS 269 Signals medium-term C/C ≤ 0.65 for OPC-43 by 2026. Pushes manufacturers toward blended cements and capture for residual kiln gas.
UAE – Net-Zero 2050 Strategy (rev. Jan 2025) Tags cement a “priority hard-to-abate” sector; fast-track permits for plants adding CCUS or WHR. Couples licensing speed to capture commitments; interim goal 14 Mt CO₂ y⁻¹ captured by 2030.

Combined, these rules force plants to address the remaining 56 % hard CO₂ the CEEW model highlights.

3 Waste-heat recovery: capture’s cheapest ally

Dry-process kilns vent 200–350 °C gas. Sharjah Cement’s 9 MW WHR unit already avoids ≈ 70 000 t CO₂ y⁻¹ and can feed half the steam for a 0.15 Mt y⁻¹ capture skid. Field data show WHR + capture cuts external steam up to 20 %.

Need a quick WHR + capture pay-back?

4 What 2025 capture economics really look like

Capture scope Installed CAPEX* OPEX band Net cost after tax shields†
0.4 Mt y⁻¹ retrofit US $120–160 M US $17–22 t⁻¹ US $35–55 t⁻¹ CO₂
0.1 Mt y⁻¹ modular skid US $60–70 M US $22–28 t⁻¹ US $45–60 t⁻¹ CO₂

*Includes WHR tie-ins; excludes pipeline.
†India 40 % Y1 depreciation or UAE 50 % two-year write-off; aligns with IEA curves.

5 India vs UAE — two divergent but real trajectories

Metric Andhra Pradesh blended line Ras Al Khaimah integrated plant
Starting C/C 0.78 0.75
2026 target C/C 0.66 0.70
Planned capture 0.12 Mt y⁻¹ (kiln stack) 0.15 Mt y⁻¹ (pre-calciner + kiln)
Steam source 100 % WHR 50 % WHR / 50 % aux boiler
Simple pay-back 5–6 yr 4–5 yr

(Proprietary heat balances withheld; numbers rounded to 5 % bands.)

6 FAQ – what non-engineers ask most

Q: What exactly is C/C?

Short answer: Clinker mass ÷ cement mass; 0.65 means 650 kg clinker per tonne cement.

Q: Can India finance small kilns?

Short answer: Yes—SIDBI Green-Equipment loans ≤ 8 % for projects < ₹150 cr.

Q: Is capture ever net-negative?

Short answer: Yes—if kiln fuel is biogenic; CAPEX similar, credits far higher.

Q: Will hydrogen prices affect kiln capture?

Short answer: Not until hydrogen < US $1 kg⁻¹; CEEW shows capture beats CCU fuels until that threshold.

7 Key take-aways

  • Policy now has hard numbers: India’s draft C/C ≤ 0.65; UAE wants 14 Mt captured by 2030.
  • Waste-heat trumps new boilers: up to 20 % steam saved.
  • Net capture cost: large retrofits clear at US $35–55 t⁻¹ after tax perks.
  • Five-year pay-backs already real when food-grade or EOR off-takes exist + concessional finance.

Need a kiln-specific decarb plan?

References

  1. BIS draft amendment IS 269 (OPC-43).
  2. UAE Net-Zero 2050 Strategy update.
  3. WHR case study, Sharjah Cement (2015).
  4. IEA CCUS cost curves, 2024.
  5. Hard-to-abate residual share (56 %) & hydrogen threshold, CEEW 2025 report.